A dam that does neither China nor India any good

Highlights:

• China is constructing a dam in Tibet on upstream Siang River which morphs into the Brahmaputra in Assam 


• The dam violates the international Helsinki Rules on river waterflow sharing between countries 


• A dam will result in the Brahmaputra, a key river for Assam, drying up 


• Assam’s agriculture and economy depend solely on the Brahmaputra 


• Odds of diplomatic dialogue between China and India seem remote  

China has reissued a standard map of its to which India has taken serious objection, indicating that the boundary dispute is very much alive in all its ramifications. China claiming and occupying several parcels of Indian territory in an arid region is one thing but there will be serious economic consequences if it continues to build a dam in violation of well-developed principles of cooperation which try to ensure that international river waters are equitably used by all affected countries.

China is building a huge 60,000 mw dam in Tibet on the Yarlung Tsangpo river, upstream of the Siang river in Arunachal Pradesh. This will have a cascading effect on the downstream countries India and Bangladesh. After traversing through Arunachal Pradesh, the Siang river enters Assam where it becomes the state’s foremost river Brahmaputra. Then it becomes the Jamuna in Bangladesh (not to be confused with the Yamuna in north India).

To partially mitigate the fallout India is building a barrage on the Siang river in Arunachal. If China continues with its dam project and completes it then the size of the Siang river will be greatly reduced. Plus, there will be serious flooding in Arunachal if China chooses to make a large release from its dam. The barrage will be used to block some of the water released by China.

China is unilaterally proceeding with its project to dam the source of the Brahmaputra despite well devolved rules for the sharing of international river waters. The Helsinki Rules, framed over half a century ago, lay stress on the need for equitable utilisation of international rivers. To enable this several factors have to be considered like a river basin’s geography, its hydrology, climate, past utilisation of waters of the basin, and economic and social needs of each basin state. The aim will be to avoid unnecessary waste in the utilisation of the basin waters and serve the paramount need to ensure that all basin states are able to meet their requirements without affecting availability for other states.

Since this is not happening in this instance, what will be the likely economic consequence of China blocking the release of sufficient waters into Siang, thus affecting the flow into the Brahmaputra? It is a key river which keeps Assam green and enables it to become a major rice producer. If the Brahmaputra even partially dries up, then it will have serious adverse impact on the ecosystem and economy of Assam.

Historically, migrants from what was earlier undivided Bengal came and settled on the flood plains of Assam’s rivers and became highly successful rice farmers, thanks to the plentiful supply of water and extended floodplains. Assam through its history has been majorly affected by floods and in an ideal world India and China should be able to cooperate to regulate river water flows to prevent floods even while ensuring that agriculture receives all the water it needs. In the best of all possible worlds Bangladesh should also be a part of the discussions as Brahmaputra waters eventually flow into the neighbouring country helping it become a famously riverine land.

The Brahmaputra running dry will be a major economic calamity for Assam and so India will need to continue with intensive diplomatic efforts to try to make China sit at the table and work out a reasonable river water sharing arrangement. But since the chances of this happening in the foreseeable future appear remote, what options does India have?

Assam will need to be ready with contingency plans to reorder its economy to be able to live with not just less water flowing down the Brahmaputra but also having to deal with floods if the barrage in Arunachal is unable to cope with a large release of water by China.  Currently Assam’s economy is largely agricultural with almost 70 percent of its population being dependent on farms.

Agriculture is naturally heavily dependent on river waters, and in particular rice cultivation which in western Assam is made possible by the Brahmaputra waters. Tea, a major produce of Assam which puts it on the global map, is however not very dependent on water from the Brahmaputra.

But poor use of the river water, even when it has been available till now, is widespread. The capital city Guwahati, on the southern banks of the Brahmaputra, does not have any piped water supply worth the name. Tall buildings which are rapidly coming up are having to go deeper to extract ground water. Plus, many of them are having to buy water to meet household needs.

China, which is building the dam partly for strategic reasons --   to have something with which to twist India’s arm – is paying its own price. The huge dam is having a negative impact on the ecological balance and climate in its catchment area. It would have been in China’s interest to have kept talking to India while planning the dam. India and Assam also seem short-sighted as there is no contingency plan to tackle the economic impact of the Brahmaputra slowly running dry.

Subir Roy is a senior journalist and author. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.