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4 September 2023
Monday
With election round the corner, lower than expected monsoon along with domestic inflation holding above central bank’s tolerance level could keep the local unit weak.
Rupee gave up its morning gains, amid rising crude prices. Local unit, which was resisting itself from falling against dollar, seems to be losing its shine as buying oil from Russia at discount price is slowly fading away. In addition, FII flows have been at lowest among last three months, though it still above INR 2 bln. Moreover, with election round the corner, lower than expected monsoon along with domestic inflation holding above central bank’s tolerance level could keep the local unit weak. Concerned among market participants are increasing, as Government is likely to loosen its purse ahead of election, which may further put pressure fiscal deficit, hence ultimately this will put dent on rupee’s sentiment in the near term.
On international front, the United States, private employers added only 177k jobs in August, lower than expectation of 194k. On the other hand, UK too witnessed drop in its mortgage approvals and consumer lending, due to ongoing higher interest rates and increasing cost of living have put significant pressure on its consumer finances. Eurozone’s biggest economy, witnessed slight decline in its inflation from 6.2% in July to 6.1% in August. However, considering core inflation, it remains same at 5.5% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month. As a result, there appears to be little incentive for the European Central Bank to ease its stance.
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