Monsoon Watch 2023 | Will September rains ease the pain?

Highlights

• Rainfall is now at an 11% deficit to the LPA


• Area sown under Kharif crops remains slightly higher than last year


• Water storage in reservoirs is 26% lower than last year


• September is expected to see normal rainfall

The last unfavourable August rainfall was recorded in 2005, with a 25 percent deficit. According to World Meteorological Organization, this year was also the hottest August of the northern hemisphere since record keeping began in 1901.

These harsh weather conditions are partly due to global warming and partly a result of the intensifying El Nino phenomenon, which usually causes global temperatures to rise and leads to poor rains in India.

September is expected to be normal, though the intensification of the El Nino effect will be key to monitor, as it is anticipated to last until February 2024.

Monsoon remains weak; crop acreages holding up

As on September 7, aggregate rainfall was at an 11 percent deficit to the long period average (LPA). All the regions were at a deficit, with east & northeast at -19 percent, south peninsula at -10 percent, central India at -11 percent, and the north-west at -2 percent.

The total area sown under Kharif crops, as on September 1, 2023, stood 0.4 percent higher than the same period last year.

Paddy sowing saw a surplus of 3.7 percent YoY, while the pulses acreage continued to lag and stood 8.5 percent lower than last year. Oilseed, cotton, and jute also saw a small deficit, year on year (YoY).

The reservoir levels continue to deteriorate and water storage, as on September 6, 2023, stood 26 percent lower to last year, and ~14 percent lower than the average storage of the last 10 years.

September has turned ‘active’ again after August ‘break’

Monsoon has now turned ‘active’ again and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects this condition to continue over the north, central, and east India for the next 3-4 days. It also expects heavy/very heavy rainfall over Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat in the following few days.

The IMD expects overall rainfall in September to be normal (91-109 percent of the LPA). Many areas of east, north-east, east-central, and south peninsular India could receive normal/above normal rains. Below normal rainfall is likely over other parts of the country.

Though overall Kharif sowing remains above last year, the coverage area is only marginally higher so far. Moreover, the dry period in August has impacted standing Kharif crops in many states.  As a result, the last leg of the monsoon will be crucial, as it will have to make up for the loss in crop yields and low reservoir levels.